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Document: 2018 U.S. Worldwide Threat Assessment

The following is the unclassified version of the 2018 Worldwide Threat Assesment of the U.S. Intelligence Community issued this week.

From the Report:

Competition among countries will increase in the coming year as major powers and regional aggressors exploit complex global trends while adjusting to new priorities in US foreign policy. The risk of interstate conflict, including among great powers, is higher than at any time since the end of the Cold War. The most immediate threats of regional interstate conflict in the next year come from North Korea and from Saudi-Iranian use of proxies in their rivalry. At the same time, the threat of state and nonstate use of weapons of mass destruction will continue to grow.

  • Adversaries and malign actors will use all instruments of national power—including information and cyber means—to shape societies and markets, international rules and institutions, and international hotspots to their advantage.
  • China and Russia will seek spheres of influence and to check US appeal and influence in their regions. Meanwhile, US allies’ and partners’ uncertainty about the willingness and capability of the United States to maintain its international commitments may drive them to consider reorienting their policies, particularly regarding trade, away from Washington.
  • Forces for geopolitical order and stability will continue to fray, as will the rules-based international order. New alignments and informal networks—outside traditional power blocs and national governments—will increasingly strain international cooperation. Tension within many countries will rise, and the threat from Sunni violent extremist groups will evolve as they recoup after battlefield losses in the Middle East.
  • Slow economic growth and technology-induced disruptions in job markets are fueling populism within advanced industrial countries and the very nationalism that contributes to tension among countries.
  • Developing countries in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa face economic challenges, and many states struggle with reforms to tamp down corruption. Terrorists and criminal groups will continue to exploit weak state capacity in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.
  • Challenges from urbanization and migration will persist, while the effects of air pollution, inadequate water, and climate change on human health and livelihood will become more noticeable. Domestic policy responses to such issues will become more difficult—especially for democracies—as publics become less trusting of authoritative information sources.

  • kye154

    The one threat they do not talk about is the ominous collapse of the U.S. Dollar. Everything hinges on that. After all, the dollar’s role as the legacy trade medium is no longer secure, given that China’s trade is now driving the global economy, not America’s. America doesn’t produce much of anything anymore, our economy is stagnant, we have a huge trade deficit and a huge national debt, the dollar has inflated to 538.8% from since 1970, making its value worth only 16 cents today. Who wants to trade in a currency that is loosing its value? With the Petro-Yuan being released this year, and backed with gold, its going to be awfully hard for any of the OPEC countries to resist, and they will cut loose from trading in petro-dollars for oil, which is the only thing backing U.S. currency right now. That would have horrible consequences for the U.S. economy, and for anyone dealing in U.S. dollars. Even our own Navy would have to have an allocation in yuans to buy fuel for its ships. Imagine that! But, you can easily see how this would affect our foreign policies throughout the world, when that happens.

  • spike

    I guess the part about U.S. support of proxy and terrorist in Syria must still be classified.

    • D. Jones

      Why are we fighting, sorry “advising”, in a foreign country without a declaration of war? President Trump should throw it in Congress’ lap: “you guys are on the MIC payroll, back up your funding requests with formal declarations of war or they get cut”

  • Ed L

    Recognize the Kurds and build a US Military stronghold in Kurdish terrority