China’s escalating military demonstrations of force toward Taiwan are “not exercises; they are rehearsals” for forced reunification with the mainland, the United States’ top military commander in the Indo-Pacific warned last week.
Adm. Samuel Paparo told the Honolulu Defense Forum that the People’s Liberation Army is showing “clear intent and capability” to attack Taiwan. Most recently, China conducted a massive simulated air and sea blockade of Taiwan in October as Taipei marked its National Day.
The “fig leaf of an exercise” could disguise intentions to invade. Paparo said artificial intelligence “would be a very effective tool to suss out that kind of warning.”
Beijing’s gray zone and military coercion “grow more concerning every day.” He added, “the stakes are of vital national interest” to every state in the Indo-Pacific as China simultaneously is pushing its ambitions aggressively in the South China Sea by militarizing artificial reefs and intimidating fishermen working in their own territorial waters.
As Paparo views the region, China is a key player in the “emerging axis of autocracy.” He called the increasingly frequent military, diplomatic and technology cooperation between Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang a “triangle of troublemakers.”
On the military side, he said joint Russian-Chinese naval exercises “have become more sophisticated in the North Pacific” and joint bomber patrols are more assertive in testing the United States’ exclusive economic zone. They also share anti-satellite capabilities and advanced submarine technologies.
“The Indo-Pacific remains the world’s center of gravity” for maritime commerce and strategic competition. Paparo added in his presentation to military and defense industry officials from 19 nations, “competition happens now, every day in every domain.”
The United States holds significant advantage in space, counter-space and cyber, but “our magazines run low” and “our maintenance backlog grows each month.” He said this is the case with the Navy, Army, Air Force, Marine Corps, Space Force and Coast Guard.
Paparo warned at a Brookings Institution event in November the United States could not rely alone on unmanned systems in a conflict with China in maintaining maritime and air superiority across the expanses of the Pacific and Indian oceans.
In his Honolulu presentation, he mentioned the drain on precision-guided munitions brought on by continuing action against the Houthis in Yemen and support for Ukraine in holding back the Russian invasion.
“Unmanned systems are force multipliers,” he added. Paparo has used the word “hellscape” to describe swarms of unmanned systems Taiwan could use as an invasion defense in the confined strait, in the air and ashore.
“We’ve got to move beyond boutique programs” to large-scale production of advanced systems using artificial intelligence and other technologies.
What Paparo is pushing for is “procurement at the speed of combat,” instead of the Pentagon process that “treats software updates with the same rigor as an aircraft carrier.” That means fast tracking software changes, unmanned capabilities “and proven commercial technologies.”
Using additive manufacturing as an example, he said “we can print parts at the point of need,” even those no longer being commercially manufactured. Steps like that would “dramatically improve readiness.”
Paparo added, “the concepts are proven.”
He also wants to remove “bureaucratic obstacles within our system that impede progress—every unnecessary review, every duplicative process—that damage our readiness.”
“’Peace through strength’ is not a slogan; it is an operational imperative.” He added with allies like Japan, Australia, Korea “we’re destined to prevail,” but “we can’t wait for perfect conditions.”
Agreements like that between Australia, United Kingdom and the United States [AUKUS] are not “diplomatic niceties; they are combat capability.”
