To expand American military capacity to fight two major conflicts simultaneously, “we have to be ready to grow” the armed forces substantially, the commandant of the Marine Corps said on Saturday.
Speaking at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi, Calif., Gen. Eric Smith said, “that comes down to recruiting” and meeting current enlistment goals has been a struggle for the Army, Navy and Air Force.
Robotics and artificial intelligence can’t be substituted for humans.
“Machine to machine learning only gets you so far,” he added. “The recruit is everything,” but noted that young people’s interest in joining the armed forces has declined over the years.
The current strategy is to have the armed forces sized, structured and positioned to fight one adversary and hold a second at bay.
There was a new sense of urgency at the annual security forum as fast-moving events far removed were happening and the United States was slightly more than a month away from a change in government.
The day of discussions and interviews was taking place as the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, backed by Iran, Hezbollah and Russia was collapsing. Al-Assad fled the capital Damascus Sunday.
What this means immediately for the Middle East from Turkey to the Gulf States and Russia and the United States is unclear. About 800 American servicemembers are in Syria assisting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.
At the same time, the war in Ukraine has taken on a new character with the introduction of North Korean soldiers to strengthen Russia’s push to re-take portions of its Kursk province. The panelists said Pyongyang’s force were sent without the Kremlin’s prodding. What Kim Il-sung expects in return is unknown.
The third potential flashpoint is Chinese ambitions to bring Taiwan under its control.
Looking at the Indo-Pacific where President Xi Jin-ping continues to menace self-governing Taiwan, a potential second theater of operations, Smith added, “the advantage is with us.” The United States has “a history of going in harm’s way,” citing the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and learning from those experiences.
The Chinese “last combat was captured on oil and canvas.” He added Beijing’s border clashes with India and fighting with Vietnam in the late 1970s and early 1980s did not go China’s way.
Whether the Trump administration would shift U.S. policy toward Taiwan is unknown now, several panelists said.
But Adm. Samuel Paparo, senior officer for the Indo-Pacific, said, “we have a tool for policymakers,” military options. “We are always in a ready stance.”
He cited Taiwan Relations Act where matters between Beijing and Taipei “shall be resolved peacefully” and “deterred with strength” as guiding American policy.
The goal, Paparo said, is to have Taipei prepared “to defend itself.”
Steps the United States has taken to bolster deterrence in his command include establishing the Marine Littoral Regiments, reaching new force stationing agreements with Japan, the Philippines and Australia and making rapid advances in unmanned systems and their deployment. He added joint fires network and the value of multi-domain task force.
Paparo said steps like those were taken to keep pace with China’s rapidly expanding navy and maritime presence in the first island chain off its coast down to the so-called nine-dash line well into the South China Sea.
Other “positive steps” to deter an aggressive China have been taken by allies and partners The examples he used came from the Quad’s maritime domain awareness initiative for smaller nations to defend their sovereignty and the Australia- United Kingdom-United States agreement on sharing nuclear technology so Canberra can build, operate and maintain nuclear-powered submarines.
The Quad is the informal working relationship among the United States, Japan, Australia and India.
“I remain confident we would prevail” in any conflict with China, but that continued build-up of conventional and nuclear forces is why President Xi Jin-ping “set the benchmark of ‘27” for a possible military move against Taiwan.
“I don’t want to see an exclusive focus on the Indo-Pacific” for budget and resources. Russia’s struggles in Ukraine help deter China from moving against Taiwan, he added.
“War with China would be disastrous,” Rep. Ken Calvert, (R-Calif.) and chair of the House defense appropriations subcommittee, said. But he added, Xi didn’t invest in this build-up simply for show.
Off-stage in the discussion of a changed strategy, revised force structure and an overhauled acquisition process is the climbing national debt and Congress’ inability to pass appropriations bills before a new fiscal year begins, Calvert said.
Calvert said, “we’re spending more on interest on the national debt [$36 trillion] than we’re spending on national security.”
Looking ahead a few weeks, he said Congress will likely pass another continuing resolution keeping the government open until possibly March but holding spending at current levels. New programs cannot begin without special congressional exception. About the time, the new Congress passes the final budget for this fiscal year, the Trump administration will deliver its blueprint for the next one.
For the Marine Corps, another six-months of continuing resolutions vs. an approved budget means “we will not make our end-strength goals,” Smith said. Because of expected bonuses for re-enlistment in specialized fields, “we’ll lose several thousand” Marines.
That translates into “an entire infantry regiment,” which means “we don’t have the manpower to support” combatant commanders like Paparo or Army Gen. Paul LaCamera in Korea.
