The following is the Dec. 9, 2024, Congressional Research Service Insight report, Syria: Regime Change, Transition, and U.S. Policy.
From the report
Rapid offensives by Syrian armed groups opposed to the government of Bashar Al Asad (alt. Assad) forced Asad’s resignation and exile to Russia on December 8, 2024. This inflection point in Syria’s post-2011 civil war marked the end of decades of Asad-family rule.
Advances since late November by anti-Asad groups left much of western Syria (including Damascus and most other major cities,) in the hands of different forces: a coalition led by the U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) Hay’at Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) coalition, and southern Syria-based armed groups. Groups (including Alawite minorities) with historical ties to the Asad regime maintain a presence in some western coastal areas where Russian air and naval bases are located. Eastern Syria remains largely under the control of the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the U.S.-backed Syrian Free Army, both U.S. counterterrorism partners against remnants of the Islamic State (IS/ISIS) that once dominated parts of Syria and Iraq.
Many Syrians are welcoming the end of Asad’s rule and opportunities to reunite families and release long-held prisoners. At the same time, Syrians and outside observers note that considerable political, economic, and security challenges lie ahead.
President Joseph Biden called Asad’s ouster “a fundamental act of justice” and “a moment of historic opportunity.” On December 9, a senior Biden Administration official asserted that U.S. policy helped bring about the weakness of the Asad regime and the “entire Iranian-backed artifice in the region,” and has “completely changed the equation in the Middle East.” President Biden also said the U.S. government would protect U.S. citizens and personnel in Syria along with U.S. regional partners, and would remain vigilant against a possible IS resurgence. Approximately 900 U.S. military personnel are present in eastern and southern Syria, conducting counterterrorism missions against IS remnants and supporting the SDF’s detention of more than 9,000 IS prisoners and administration of camps for more than 40,000 individuals from formerly IS-held areas. U.S. Central Command conducted dozens of airstrikes against IS targets in central Syria as Asad’s forces withdrew. The United States suspended operations at the U.S. Embassy in Damascus in 2012; the Czech Republic serves as the U.S. protecting power in Syria. President-elect Donald Trump made statements as Asad’s government collapsed, calling for the United States to refrain from involvement in Syria’s conflict.
Situation in Syria
As of December 8, some Asad government officials appeared to remain in place and anti-Asad forces appeared to be coordinating with them to attempt to preserve order. Debate among Syrians over Congressional Research Service 3
governance may reflect the diverse interests of Syrian political, ideological, ethnic, and religious groups. While armed Sunni Islamist groups led the final military campaign that ousted Asad, non-Islamist locally-organized armed groups, particularly in southern Syria, participated and may control some strategic areas and resources. Syrians’ demands for accountability and personal grievances may affect security as the transition unfolds.
Outside actors, including Syria’s neighbors, may act to influence Syria’s transitional arrangements and the post-Asad security environment in ways that serve their discrete interests. Turkey supports armed groups in northern Syria that have seized areas near Aleppo from the U.S.-backed SDF since early December. The Turkish government seeks to counter the SDF because of links Kurdish SDF elements have with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK, another FTO). On December 8, Israel took control of some formerly Syrian military-held areas of the Golan Heights and said it would continue to strike “heavy strategic weapons throughout Syria.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu characterized Israel’s military as taking a “temporary defensive position,” and expressed his hope that Israel and Syria could have peaceful relations in the future. To date, some Russian military forces have repositioned but reportedly remain in Syria. Iran reportedly evacuated some personnel from Syria.
Asad’s departure may enable additional international humanitarian assistance to Syria. In June 2024, a UN official warned that Syria was “facing its highest levels of humanitarian need since the start of this 13-year crisis,” with 7.2 million people internally displaced and 13 million people (of a population of nearly 24 million) facing “high levels of acute food insecurity.” Nearly five million Syrians are registered as refugees in regional countries. Any return home of displaced Syrians may ease pressures on host communities, but could increase humanitarian and service demands on transitional authorities and create new operational and diplomatic questions for donors.
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