WASHINGTON, D.C. – While the U.S. military can employ small drones in confined spaces, conflict with China in the Pacific will still require U.S. forces to maintain air and maritime superiority, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said Tuesday.
Speaking at the Brookings Institution, Adm. Sam Paparo said smaller unmanned platforms won’t get the job done in the vast oceans of the Indo-Pacific. Should the U.S. military deploy drones in a smaller area like the Taiwan Strait to thwart a Chinese invasion of the self-governing island, U.S. forces would still need to sustain those platforms from Okinawa, Paparo said. The distance between the Taiwan Strait and Okinawa is about 436 nautical miles, a stretch of water that would require surface assets to control the sea lines of communication.
“Everybody is stuck in this paradigm of either or,” Paparo added. The head of INDOPACOM pointed to the example of Ukraine, which is sandwiched between NATO air and communication control to its west and Russia’s air and communication control to the east.
“There is a war of attrition in the middle, where we’re learning a lot about [electronic warfare] and we’re changing the game,” Paparo said. “And there’s a lot to be learned in there, but if you think that’s all of it and we can quit on everything else in the Pacific. You know, how are we going to sustain everything else if we completely give up on air and maritime superiority in the Pacific?”
Over the last three years, observers have sought to make comparisons between a potential invasion of Taiwan and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, while others have argued Ukraine’s use of drones and other new technology to thwart the larger Russian military could be applicable to a Taiwan invasion scenario.
“Oh let’s just quit on everything. We’ve got some drones,” Paparo said sarcastically. “Alright, well the [People’s Republic of China]’s got 2,100 fighters,” he continued. “They’ve got three aircraft carriers. They have a battle force of 200 destroyers. Oh well roger, we’ve got a couple drones. No problem. You know, we’ve got that Ukraine thing licked.”
Asked about the thousands of unmanned platforms that are supposed to operate under his combatant command next year for the Pentagon’s Replicator initiative, Paparo said he’s “not saying a word” on the topic. Asked whether Replicator platforms will go on ships and aircraft to avoid political negotiations for basing them on foreign soil, Paparo said “probably,” but wouldn’t elaborate.
The first round of the Replicator initiative – which is seeking to quickly develop and field unmanned platforms to the combatant commanders – was projected to cost about $1 billion, USNI News previously reported.
During the talk at Brookings, Paparo said attritable systems need to cost in the hundreds or thousands of dollars.
“Reusable systems can end with a different number,” he said. “We shouldn’t confuse that when we’re making these choices.”
While Paparo said unmanned platforms can help perform dangerous jobs to save lives, humans must still make the decisions as to what these systems do in a potential conflict.
“In today’s world with greater AI tools, with greater autonomy, with the proliferation of unmanned capabilities, the more unmanned capabilities you can use the better,” he said. “But because we seek political behavior from our adversaries, because of the morality of that, you can never abdicate these decisions to a machine.”
As for the People’s Liberation Army’s capabilities, Paparo said this year he witnessed China’s most joint and expansive drills to date.
“Over the summer I saw the most rehearsal and the most joint exercises from the People’s Republic of China that I’d ever seen, with the widest geography, the jointest operations for air, missile maritime power, that I’d seen over an entire career of being an observer,” he said. “And this included on one particular day 152 vessels at sea, including three-quarters of the amphibious force, 200 combat amphibious shapes in the water. I’d seen 43 brigades, including breaching obstacles’ onward movement to military operations in urban terrain.”
Paparo pointed to the PLA’s May drills following Taiwan’s inauguration of its new president, Lai Ching-te, and October drills after Taiwan celebrated its annual National Day on Oct. 10. Both drills saw PLA forces encircling the island, while the October exercise simulated a blockade scenario.
“This was the largest rehearsal we’ve seen on an upward trajectory of PLA modernization and joint rehearsal as the PLA continues to enhance and improve its military capabilities,” he said.
