Sending three icebreakers into Arctic waters for the first time is “a clear signal” that Beijing is serious about pursuing its great power ambitions commercially, scientifically, diplomatically and militarily in the polar regions, the co-author of a study of China’s strategic goals said in an interview with USNI News.
Aidan Powers-Riggs, a research associate for China analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said its strategists “see major shifts underway in the region’s physical and geopolitical landscape and are seeking to position China to be able to capitalize on them.”
The Chinese added presence this summer when U.S. Arctic research presence was cut short by three days. An electrical fire in a transformer caused USCGC Healy (WAGB-20) to return to its homeport in Seattle for repairs.
China, describing itself as a “near-Arctic power,” has steadily been “building a physical presence through commercial and scientific activities,” Powers-Riggs added. Those moves are “key to maintaining an influence and defending their interests there” which also include mineral and energy exploration and development.
Powers-Riggs said Beijing, wary of attempts by the seven NATO Arctic nations to exclude China from the region, sees “new opportunities for shipping, natural resource extractions and military operations” in the Arctic.
In early July, the Coast Guard encountered multiple Chinese military ships in the Bering Sea.
The crew of USCGC Kimball (WMSL-756) detected three vessels approximately 124 miles north of the Amchitka Pass in the Aleutian Islands, and an HC-130J aircrew from Coast Guard Air Station Kodiak detected an additional vessel approximately 84 miles north of the Amukta Pass, a Coast Guard press release stated.
“The Chinese naval presence operated in accordance with international rules and norms,” said Rear Adm. Megan Dean, 17th Coast Guard District commander, in the release. “We met presence with presence to ensure there were no disruptions to U.S. interests in the maritime environment around Alaska.”
In an example of stepped up commercial use of Arctic waters, China has turned to the Northern Sea Route to receive its crude oil shipments, as a safer, faster alternative a Red Sea passage, where it would risk Houthi drone or missile attacks, outlets specializing in maritime news are reporting.
This route, closest to Russia, is usually ice-free from late June to mid-November.
Times were cut to 33 or 35 days using the Northern Sea Route for China’s Russian imports versus 45 via the Suez Canal and 55 by going around Africa.
In addition, Russia and China are working to “reduce political and bureaucratic obstacles to coordinating more closely” on Arctic roles and possibilities, Powers-Riggs said. “Most recently, China’s premier Li Qiang met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and agreed to continue to expand their coordination over Arctic issues like shipping and polar ship technology. Xi and Putin have discussed this on multiple occasions, including in 2023.”
Qiang and Mishusting both have shown commitment to new ship technology for varying Arctic operations.
Russia’s latest icebreaker Ivan Papanin has begun sea trials. The War Zone reports the vessel, delayed by sanctions imposed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will also be capable of carrying cruise missiles and other armaments. This is the first in the Project 23550 combat icebreaker class to leave a shipyard for sea trials.
China is fast-tracking construction of a fourth icebreaker, which is expected to begin in the new year, the pro-Chinese government Global Times is reporting. The ship’s designer told the newspaper that “China will have the ability to operate year-round in polar environments for in-depth scientific research missions and obtain the capabilities of full-area and all-time entry” when the heavy icebreaker becomes operational.
Stateside, Bollinger Shipyard in Mississippi is expected to begin construction on the U.S. Coast Guard’s Polar Security Cutter by the end of 2024. The program, plagued by delays in design and cost overruns, has come under congressional scrutiny.
The latest Congressional Budget Office report said the Coast Guard’s $3.2 billion estimate for building for the three heavy icebreakers is under service review.
The U.S. requirement is for three heavy icebreakers capable of breaking ice more than 2 meters thick and three medium icebreakers capable of breaking ice up to 1.5 meters thick.
The first would replace the nation’s only operational heavy icebreaker, USCGC Polar Star (WAGB-10). Polar Star completed Phase Four of its service-life extension program at Mare Island, Calif., and returned to its Seattle homeport on Aug. 25. It will be available for the upcoming support mission to the Antarctic.
In a release, Capt. Jeff Rasnake, the icebreaker’s new commanding officer, said “the dedication and teamwork displayed across all stakeholders exemplifies the Coast Guard’s flexibility and commitment to ensuring the continued success of Operation Deep Freeze as well as strengthened partnerships among nations invested in the Antarctic latitudes.”
The last Operation Deep Freeze deployment lasted 136 days.
Lt. Cmdr. Jeannie Shaye, Pacific Area public affairs officer, said Healy will be ready for fall and next summer’s scientific missions.
Powers-Riggs said, “Chinese scientists working in the Arctic certainly publish their findings and collaborate with international scientific organizations working in the region. Not all of China’s scientific ventures should raise concerns.”
To gain a taste of polar research, the canceled American National Science Foundation research project this year were: Monitoring the Western Arctic Boundary Current in a Warming Climate: Atmospheric Forcing and Oceanographic Response; Polar Early Career Chief Scientist Training Program; US GO-SHIP 2021-2026 Repeat Hydrography, Carbon and Tracers.
Despite the early return, NSF spokeswoman Cassandra Eichner said this year’s cruise led by Robert Pickart, senior scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, “was able to have the initial workshop to provide some education/training for participants. They, along with Coast Guard personnel, conducted community engagement in Kugluktuk,” a Canadian hamlet near the border with the Northwest Territories.
But research can have multiple uses, Powers-Riggs added.
“Much of the polar scientific research that China has prioritized has clear dual-use applications. For example, synthetic aperture radar used for sea-ice assessment can be used for targeting and intelligence purposes. Oceanographic surveys can provide important knowledge of the undersea environment for naval operations – particularly submarines. And satellite ground stations can enable China to service its satellites, including military satellites.”
